Air transportation is an essential catalyst of commerce and economic development in the modern global economy. The industry’s lengthy cycles of expansion and contraction put a premium on seasoned negotiation supported by solid economic fundamentals. For over three decades, the team at Flightpath Economics has provided business planning for airlines, labor groups, aircraft manufacturers, investors, airports, and governments. We are especially well-known for our expertise in producing solutions at the intersection of air carrier finance, labor dynamics, fleet planning, network planning, and operations. If your organizational goals require a systemic and market-driven approach to aviation, we stand ready to help. Contact us for more information.
Safe air transportation relies on a complex interconnected web of infrastructure. Infrastructure is far more than just physical assets such as airports, air traffic control systems, and aircraft – it is the entire comprehensive support system for an industry that depends upon timely adoption of new technology, development of skilled human capacity, and sound investments in strategic assets that enable growth.
From our combined decades of experience in airline forecasting, airport financial analysis, and aviation economics, we understand the complexity and nuance of investing in long-lived and capital intensive assets. Flightpath Economics has completed dozens of long-range econometric traffic forecasts and financial forecasts for major international airports, on behalf of both banks and infrastructure funds. We are frequently retained by private investors to conduct buy-side due diligence of aviation-related businesses and support infrastructure. Unlike most of our competitors, we also understand the market for human capital, and are well-known for our due diligence of flight schools and training centers, both before and after an acquisition.
If your business case for either “hard” or “soft” infrastructure needs to be stress-tested by experts with immediate and direct involvement in the aviation industry, we welcome the chance to discuss your individual requirements.
Solutions to the Pilot Supply
Worldwide, air carriers are facing a serious long-term shortage of qualified pilots. In the United States, a confluence of demographic trends and regulatory factors are creating an unprecedented shortage of pilots which threatens the integrity of the national air transportation system. Independent research by Flightpath Economics suggests that neither the current stock of qualified pilots, nor the future production of qualified pilots, is sufficient to meet industry demand. For some air carriers, the consequences are already severe – several have already experienced large-scale operational disruptions and financial fallout. With some 40% of US airline passengers dependent on smaller regional air carriers, we forecast that many well-known US airlines will be forced to curtail service, close hubs, and alter networks and fleet plans in response to the pilot shortage. To deal proactively with the changing pilot supply, US airlines must address the fundamental issues inherent in cultivating and retaining human capital.
Flightpath Economics is recognized as the leading industry expert on the supply and demand for qualified aircraft pilots. Our research and recommendations are informed by decades of direct experience representing the pilot workforce and from our long history of structuring commercial solutions for air carriers of all sizes. We are well-known for our strict adherence to analytical objectivity, our detailed knowledge of the supply and demand for pilots, and our access to proprietary data developed specifically to address critical issues in the supply of trained aircraft pilots.
The boom and bust cycles of the aviation industry produce a variety of special situations which require experience, judgement, and solid numerical analysis. The principles of Flightpath Economics have navigated these special situations since the early days of US airline deregulation. We have organized and launched new airlines, valued intangible aviation assets, provided economic guidance in mergers and acquisitions, and been actively involved in restructuring the industry – both in and out of bankruptcy protection. If your organization is facing challenges and looking to survive and prosper in unusual circumstances, we welcome the opportunity to discuss your options and implement solutions. Contact us today if you would like to discuss any of the following
- Buying or selling an aviation-related business
- Restructuring – in bankruptcy or out of bankruptcy
- Buy and sell-side due diligence of airline mergers, aircraft transactions, air traffic management systems, and airports
- Financial projections for airlines, airports, air navigation service providers, and aviation-related manufacturers
- Economic appraisal of “intangible” assets such as landing slots, route rights, and changes to regulatory regimes
From the cockpit to the cabin, on the ramp and in the shop floor, the aviation industry is entirely dependent on skilled professionals who perform difficult tasks under pressure. Unlike many other labor-intensive industries, the aviation industry relies on trained professionals to routinely make decisions involving life and death consequences. The initial training and continued investment in these professionals is not an option – it is an imperative. Flightpath Economics provides economic and financial expertise to support and optimize workforce planning. We produce forecasts of labor availability, economic modeling of workforce costs, expert advice in mediation and arbitration, and varied professional services to structure and de-risk the transfer of skills and knowledge between generations. As your aviation workforce ages and retires, as new entrants to the workforce are increasingly drawn to other industries, are you prepared for the future? Contact us today if you would like to review the workforce requirements of your aviation business.